A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
